Why Iran will say, “No.”

Will Obama flunk the test?

Today, in Vienna, Iran will deliver its counter-offer, to the IAEA (Thursday October 29 2009).

My guess is, Iran will say, “No thanks. We want to buy fuel, not export fuel.”

And then Iran will wait, to see what happens.

I expect Obama to flunk this test, this simple test, Iran sets for him.

Iran wants to buy fuel, for its 42 year-old reactor, the TRR (Tehran Research Reactor, 5MW: megawatts), purchased from the U.S. long ago (1960), commissioned in 1967.

It’s the poster child, of Atoms for Peace. Everybody agrees on that. Iran’s small Tehran reactor is harmless and prevents harm. It “produces medical radioisotopes for therapeutic and diagnostic procedures” (IAEA). The TRR runs on 19.5% LEU, “low enriched uranium”. (IAEA defines anything above 20% U235 as HEU, “highly enriched uranium”). The Tehran reactor is safeguarded by the IAEA, including all its spent fuel.

That’s what Iran asked the IAEA to facilitate (the IAEA’s primary duty), the purchase of fuel, for that reactor. That’s the origin of the meeting in Vienna, the purchase of fuel, not the export of fuel, by Iran.

The P5 agreed, in the NPT, to help other countries, like Iran, obtain what they need, for their Atoms for Peace projects. The P5, the permanent members of the Security Council: U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China.

Like selling Iran fuel, for example. They promised, in that treaty, to facilitate the purchase of fuel (any everything else) by Iran, and anyway to not interfere with it, purchases from other countries.

But, no. They won’t do it. Instead, they use this vital ingredient, reactor fuel, as a bargaining chip. They link this vital fuel to political issues. They make a carrot of it, to tempt a desperate Atoms for Peace country to agree to something, completely unrelated to that IAEA safeguarded reactor, and the country’s humanitarian need for it.

This behavior, by the P5+1 (Germany), engineered by the U.S. and the EU3 (U.K., France, Germany) — their despicable, immoral, dishonest, corrupt, shocking, behavior — is emblematic of the U.S., a lost leader, a nation any decent person will shun, if they can, a leader which long ago led its flock astray.

This is the same as the U.S. refusal to permit Boeing to provide spare parts for its aircraft in Iran’s fleet, upgrades, safety modifications, faulty part replacements. The U.S. attacks, promises to punish and prosecute, any company, anywhere in the world, who provides maintenance services, spare parts, rebuilds engines, the U.S. will require Boeing to cut them off too, put them out of business. Iran buys spare parts from China, because the U.S. won’t dare trifle with China, threaten China, deny Boeing its rich customer, terrify Boeing customers. And, China is the U.S. banker, the solitary country standing between the U.S. and bankruptcy, with the power to plunge the U.S. into economic disaster, social turmoil, and permanent ignominy.

The U.S. killing Iranian airline passengers, with defective, faulty, U.S. aircraft which the U.S. refuses airworthiness maintenance, that’s the same as the U.S. killing Iranian cancer patients, refusing them atomic isotopes, for diagnosis and treatment.

Moral depravity stalks the U.S., dominates it, rules that land, and all those they enleague, tempt, bully, into their depraved conspiracies.

The U.S. has flouted its solemn NPT obligations for decades — and other countries have joined the U.S. illegal conspiracy. They have seized Iran’s property, interfered with their contracts, threatened and punished their suppliers, all of it legitimate, lawful, items for Iran’s peaceful nuclear projects. The U.S. and its corrupt partners (like the EU3) blackmail Iran, bully Iran, menace Iran, refuse to sell fuel to Iran, unless Iran obeys, the P5 demands of the day, endless, unlawful, torment.

Will Obama now change course? consent, facilitate, the sale of fuel to Iran? no strings attached?

Iran can eventually make the fuel itself, but no time soon, and it needs the fuel now. Iran’s centrifuges are configured for electricity plant fuel (3-5% U235), and interrupting that, or reconfiguring new cascades, for 19.5% (TRR fuel), that’s new territory, a big challenge, troubles they would have to conquer, their uranium is (allegedly) contaminated with chemicals, and their centrifuge rotors are aluminum and so can’t spin fast enough — the ideal supersonic speeds — because aluminum deforms, the cascades crash.

At Vienna, Mohammad ElBaradei (IAEA director general), produced his proposal, what the P5+1 wants, that Iran export its uranium, what it enriched (to less than 5% U235), Russia will further enrich it (to 19.5%), and then France will make the fuel pellets (Wednesday October 21 2009).

The bullies (P5+1), they want to examine the output of Iran’s centrifuges, evaluate contaminates, and such, see how much trouble it is, to further enrich it, to 19.5%, and they want to deplete Iran’s stocks, claiming Iran could enrich it for a bomb.

They omit to mention, when lying to the public, that they have no credible evidence Iran has ever tried to make a bomb, or wants to make a bomb, the IAEA reports it has seen no such evidence, after looking hard to find it. And, they also omit to mention this: The IAEA would blow a loud whistle if Iran increased its enrichment. And this: Iran’s centrifuge operation is IAEA-safeguarded, including the output, the whole of Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium.

If they won’t sell Iran fuel, or permit other countries to do it, no strings attached, for Iran’s TRR, a small but vital reactor, then what hope for electricity plant fuel, down the road, when the lights start to flicker.

If they make any demands on Iran, threaten to withhold fuel, for any reason, then Obama and the rest will certify, once again, they are dishonest, rogue states, they cannot be trusted, depended upon, for anything.

If Iran wants a trustworthy source of fuel, then Iran can only trust itself. This, U.S. and the EU3 have repeatedly demonstrated, over the years, to the complete satisfaction of every last adult in Iran.

Will Obama repeat that message?

I put my money on him, that Obama will do it again, thumb his nose at the rule of law, the U.S. agreement (NPT), and carry on as before, do what Bush did, what Clinton did, what Bush did, what Reagan did.

Unfortunately, I won’t make any money on my bet, because that’s what every bookie in the whole world believes too, what Obama will do, thumb his nose at Iran.

Charles Judson Harwood Jr (Warlaw)

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NPT: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (March 5 1970):

Article III

3. The safeguards required by this Article shall be implemented in a manner designed to comply with Article IV of this Treaty, and to avoid hampering the economic or technological development of the Parties or international co-operation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities, including the international exchange of nuclear material and equipment for the processing, use or production of nuclear material for peaceful purposes in accordance with the provisions of this Article and the principle of safeguarding set forth in the Preamble of the Treaty.

Article IV

1. Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty.

2. All the Parties to the Treaty undertake to facilitate, and have the right to participate in, the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Parties to the Treaty in a position to do so shall also cooperate in contributing alone or together with other States or international organizations to the further development of the applications of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories of non-nuclear-weapon States Party to the Treaty, with due consideration for the needs of the developing areas of the world.

Source: IAEA INFCIRC/140, April 22 1970 (boldface added)

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